The consignment to history of what were key jobs at the time is, of course, a natural consequence of technological advancement (see our previous article on the future resource market). Replaced by ‘new’ tech of the time, everything from switchboard and elevator operators to “ice cutters” have their place in the list of professions which have long since left our daily job boards.
Nevertheless, over the past few years there has been an increased amount of coverage given to the consequences of new tech and the 4th Industrial Revolution (including by leaders at last month’s World Economic Forum), which is said to lead to jobs currently held by men and women becoming filled by machines in pretty much every sector and industry in the global economy.
Thomas Frey, Senior Futurist at the DaVinci Institute, and Google’s top rated Futurist Speaker, predicts that by 2030 a whopping 2 billion jobs will no longer exist (to put that in context… around half of all the jobs on the planet). Does this mean that we have a 50 per cent chance of becoming jobless within the next few decades, because of automation and other new technologies, such as robots being introduced?
Worry not!…apparently the answer is no.
According to Frey, what it means is that our jobs are transitioning, and it is happening “at a higher pace than ever before in history”. The futurist stresses that due to their catalytic nature, several innovations, including driver-less cars, teacher-less education and 3D-printable houses, are actually going to create completely new industries. This view is supported by a recent report, Fast Forward 2030: The Future of Work and the Workplace, which states that;
“Losing occupations does not necessarily mean losing jobs – just changing what people do”, and by Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research, Jonathan Grudin, who said that “Technology will continue to disrupt jobs, but more jobs seem likely to be created”
As an example, let’s take 3D printing, which Chris Anderson, Managing Editor of Wired Magazine believes to be even bigger than the Internet. Frey predicts, that as 3D printing matures, professions such as clothing manufacturing and retailing, as well as lumber, rock, drywall, shingle and concrete industries are going to disappear. However, new jobs will become available in the areas of 3D printer design, engineering and manufacturing (although, in one scenario a 3D printer can print a baby 3D printer); there will be a demand for 3D printer repairmen, product designers, stylists, engineers and ‘ink’ sellers.
While predicting that even though robots will fill some jobs, others will benefit from this productivity growth and subsequently will have more income and more disposable income. This in turn will increase the need for other jobs. Heidi Shierholz, Chief Economist at the U.S. Labor Department, implies that the pace of change might at times be exaggerated. During the Will your Job Disappear by 2024? Bloomberg Benchmark podcast she stated that actually we are not seeing a massive acceleration in productivity, which would signal that robots and automation have some way to go in removing the levels of workforce that some are predicting. Indeed, while historically productivity has grown around 2 per cent a year, over the last 10 years it has actually been a little bit slower.
Are we being over dramatic about the speed of the changes leading to an increased man vs machine conflict in the workplace? All we can say for certain is that whilst the more extreme scenarios are increasingly likely to make headlines and reach your feeds, it is certain that sooner or later technology will change your job and those of the next generation.