Broadgate Predictions for 2015

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We’ve had a number of lively discussions in the office and here are our condensed predictions for the coming year.  Most of our clients work with the financial services sector so we have focused on predictions in these areas.  It would be good to know your thoughts on these and your own predictions.

 

Cloud becomes the default

There has been widespread resistance to the cloud in the FS world. We’ve been promoting the advantages of demand based or utility computing for years and in 2014 there seemed to be acceptance that cloud (whether external applications such as SalesForce or on demand platforms such as Azure) can provide advantages over traditional ‘build and deploy’ set-ups. Our prediction is that cloud will become the ‘norm’ for FS companies in 2015 and building in-house will become the exception and then mostly for integration.

Intranpreneur‘ becomes widely used (again)

We first came across the term Intranpreneur in the late ’80s in the Economist magazine. It highlighted some forward thinking organisations attempt to change culture, to foster,  employ and grow internal entrepreneurs, people who think differently and have a start-up mentality within large firms to make them more dynamic and fast moving. The term came back into fashion in the tech boom of the late ’90s, mainly by large consulting firms desperate to hold on to their young smart workforce that was being snapped up by Silicon Valley. We have seen the resurgence of that movement with banks competing with tech for the top talent and the consultancies trying to find enough people to fulfil their client projects.

Bitcoins or similar become mainstream

Crypto-currencies are fascinating. Their emergence in the last few years has only really touched the periphery of finance, starting as an academic exercise, being used by underground and cyber-criminals, adopted by tech-savvy consumers and firms. We think there is a chance a form of electronic currency may become more widely used in the coming year. There may be a trigger event – such as rapid inflation combined with currency controls in Russia – or a significant payment firm, such as MasterCard or Paypal, starts accepting it.

Bitcoins or similar gets hacked so causing massive volatility

This is almost inevitable. The algorithms and technology mean that Bitcoins will be hacked at some point. This will cause massive volatility, loss of confidence and then their demise but a stronger currency will emerge. The reason why it is inevitable is that the tech used to create Bitcoins rely on the speed of computer hardware slowing their creation. If someone works around this or utilises a yet undeveloped approach such as quantum computing then all bets are off. Also, perhaps more likely, someone will discover a flaw or bug with the creation process, short cut the process or just up the numbers in their account and become (virtually) very rich very quickly.

Mobile payments, via a tech company, become mainstream

This is one of the strongest growth areas in 2015. Apple, Google, Paypal, Amazon, the card companies and most of the global banks are desperate to get a bit of the action. Whoever gets it right, with trust, easy to use great products will make a huge amount of money, tie consumers to their brand and also know a heck of a lot more about them and their spending habits. Payments will only be the start and banking accounts and lifestyle finance will follow. This one product could transform technology companies (as they are the ones that are most likely to succeed) beyond recognition and make existing valuations seem miniscule compared to their future worth.

Mobile payments get hacked

Almost as inevitable as bitcoins getting hacked. Who knows when or how but it will happen but will not impact as greatly as it will on the early crypto-currencies.

Firms wake up to the value of Data Science over Big Data

Like cloud many firms have been talking up the advantages of big data in the last couple of years. We still see situations where people are missing the point. Loading large amounts of disparate information into a central store is all well and good but it is asking the right questions of it and understanding the outputs is what it’s all about. If you don’t think about what you need the information for then it will not provide value or insight to your business. We welcome the change in thinking from Big Data to Data Science.

The monetisation of an individual’s personal data results in a multi-billion dollar valuation an unknown start-up

Long Sentence… but the value of people’s data is high and the price firms currently pay for it is low to no cost. If someone can start to monetise that data it will transform the information industry. There are companies and research projects out there working on approaches and products. One or more will emerge in 2015 to be bought by one of the existing tech players or become that multi-billion dollar firm. They will have the converse effect on Facebook, Google etc that rely on that free information to power their advertising engines.

Cyber Insurance becomes mandatory for firms holding personal data (OK maybe 2016)

It wouldn’t be too far fetched to assume that all financial services firms are currently compromised, either internally or externally. Most firms have encountered either direct financial or indirect losses in the last few years. Cyber or Internet security protection measures now form part of most companies’ annual reports. We think, in addition to the physical, virtual and procedural protection there will be a huge growth in Cyber-Insurance protection and it may well become mandatory in some jurisdictions especially with personal data protection. Insurance companies will make sure there are levels of protection in place before they insure so forcing companies to improve their security further.

Regulation continues to absorb the majority of budgets….

No change then.

We think 2015 is going to be another exciting year in technology and financial services and are really looking forward to it!

 

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Posted on : 29-12-2014 | By : richard.gale | In : Innovation

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Comments (1)

Some good predictions there but I think you have missed one emerging technology which will be in the mainstream in the next few years: Biometrics.

I agree payments through mobile will become mainstream but so will credit cards with fingerprint sensors. Instead of placing a plastic card into a terminal and entering a four-digit number, shoppers will only be required to place their finger over a sensor on a card which has their data loaded on their prints. If the scanner recognises the user’s print, it will automatically send a signal to the store till, prompting a payment to go through.

The first fingerprint Mastercards are expected to begin operating in Britain next year, after a successful trial carried out in Norway.

Not just biometrics will be used for payments but also for access and authentication. Biometrics will replace passwords for example on websites.

BiometricUpdate.com reports that according to a recent study from Acuity Market Intelligence, they forecast there will be intensified demand for smartphones, tablets, and wearable mobile devices which incorporate biometrics will drive a global market of 2.5 billion users with nearly 4.8 billion biometric devices by 2020.

http://www.biometricupdate.com/201412/4-8-billion-biometric-devices-predicted-by-2020

The global biometrics market is expected to be worth a staggering $24.59 billion by 2020, according to a recent study by Grand View Research, which certainly makes it one of the fastest growing industries of all.

Happy New Year!

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